Huss, M., Funk, M. & Ohmura, A. Spandre, P. et al. 49, 26652683 (2017). 3c). Glaciers and ice caps are experiencing strong mass losses worldwide, challenging water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. Average cumulative MB projections of French Alpine glaciers with a nonlinear deep learning vs. a linear Lasso model for 29 climate scenarios; a with topographical feedback (allowing for glacier retreat) and e without topographical feedback (synthetic experiment with constant mean glacier altitude). As we have previously shown, these models present a very similar behaviour to the linear statistical MB model from this study (Fig. Earths Future https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470 (2020). Earth Planet. melt and sublimation of ice, firn and snow; or calving)9; and (2) ice flow dynamics, characterized by the downward movement of ice due to the effects of gravity in the form of deformation of ice and basal sliding. Nature 575, 341344 (2019). Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss Rveillet, M. et al. 1). Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. Summer climate is computed between April 1st and September 30th and winter climate between October 1st and March 31st. On top of that, they happen to be among the glacierized regions with the largest projected uncertainties8. The estimated ice thickness for Mer de Glace (28.87km2 in 2015) was increased by 25% in order to correct the bias with respect to field observations31. performed simulations with another glacier model, provided results for comparison, and contributed to the glaciological analyses. Huss, M. & Hock, R. A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise. This is particularly important for the ablation season and for ice DDFs, which need to accommodate the progressively decreasing role that shortwave radiation will play in the future glacier surface energy budget under warmer conditions. S4). This adjustment represents a major improvement over most climate data used to force regional and global glacier models. Glaciers in the European Alps have been monitored for several decades, resulting in the longest observational series in the world23,24. acknowledges the funding received from a EU Horizon 2020 Marie Skodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (grant no. An enhanced temperature-index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: development and testing for Haut Glacier dArolla, Switzerland. S5 and S6). I.G. 2015 IEEE Int. (2019) https://doi.org/10.18750/MASSBALANCE.2019.R2019. We acknowledge the more than 50 years of glaciological monitoring performed by the GLACIOCLIM French National Observatory (https://glacioclim.osug.fr), which provided essential observations for our modelling study. Our results confirm an over-sensitivity of temperature-index models, often used by large-scale studies, to future warming. GLAMOS. Therefore, solid precipitation is projected to remain almost constant at the evolving glaciers mean altitude independently from the future climate scenarios, while air temperature is projected to drive future glacier-wide mass changes (Fig. In many aspects, it might be too optimistic, as many ice caps will have a negative impact on MB through thinning, bringing their mean surface elevation to lower altitudes, thus further warming their perceived climate. For these 32 glaciers, a total of 1048 annual glacier-wide MB values are available, covering the 19672015 period with gaps. Nonlinear deep learning response and linear Lasso response to a Cumulative positive degree days (CPDD) anomalies, b winter snowfall, and c summer snowfall. The vertical blue and red lines indicate the distribution of extreme (top 5%) values for all 21st century projected climate scenarios, with the mean value in the center and 1 indicated by dashed lines. Bolibar, J., Rabatel, A., Gouttevin, I. Planet. Google Scholar. Lett. Conversely, for RCP 8.5, annual glacier-wide MB are estimated to become increasingly negative by the second half of the century, with average MB almost twice as negative as todays average values (Fig.
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